Life Ponderings
What is Survivorship Bias and Why Does It Matter?
Stories of Heroes of the world and Unicorn startups fill our feed nowadays. But are they actually useful? The negative side of success stories.
Survivorship Bias can mess with your perception of the world. In a sense, it is when you have an overly optimistic or pessimistic view of a situation. Survivorship Bias is inherently bad because it is a form of bias. I’ll walk you through what Survivorship Bias is, where we see it in real life and how it can impact you.
The definition of Survivorship Bias, according to Wikipedia is:
Survivorship is a form of logical error when focusing on people or things that made it past some selection process, overlooking those that did not.
Survivorship Bias is an old term coined in the early 1930s and the best example of it comes from a situation during World War II. This particular event is often regarded as the ‘creation’ of the term Survivorship Bias. (Overused example coming up, so bear with.)
It’s 1943…
Imagine you’re the lead engineer of the air force, and your superior asks you a question, or rather gives you an order. “How would you reinforce and repair planes that come back from the field of combat?” Simple enough right?
You look at where the damage is on the planes and fix and reinforce where the damage appears most. Job done.
Well the job’s not really done, according to Abraham Wald, a Hungarian mathematician, economist and statistician. The Hungarian man had something else to say about you and your repair process for your warplanes.
There is a clear pattern of the damage from the planes that returned from war. It probably seems obvious to you and I that the wings and the tail seem to be taking majority of the shots. Clearly that should be reinforced and made stronger. Unfortunately, that’s not it.
Abraham and his team at Columbia University had an extremely counterintuitive solution; reinforcing the parts of the plane with least damage. His decision might have turned the tides of war and some even attributed Abraham’s decision to winning World War II.
The problem is any analysis carried out was only done to planes that managed to return from the battlefield; meaning you’re missing all of the planes that were destroyed and incapacitated in war. Do you think that kind of information would give you a complete analysis of the situation?
That is the very essence of Survivorship Bias. Your source of knowledge and data is limited only to the information that is given to you by the ‘survivors’ or by the few that have gone through a process.
Where is Survivorship Bias in Real Life?
Do you think you see Survivorship Bias being displayed in your life daily? If you’re thinking ‘yes’, you’re probably right.
Daily Encounters with Survivorship Bias
You’ve certainly seen the stories of Unicorn Startups from Silicon Valley, Silicon Roundabout (London, United Kingdom’s tech centre), Zhongguancun (Beijing, China’s tech centre) and all the hundreds of tech centres around the world.
A short list of these Unicorn Startups:
- ByteDance, the creators of TikTok.
- Epic Games, the company behind Fortnite.
- Robinhood, the business that pioneered commision-free trading.
- AirBnB, the house-sharing/rental marketplace.
- Canva, the web-based graphic design platform.
You’ve also probably come across incredible stories of famous entrepreneurs from the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Melanie Perkins, Oprah Winfrey, Yang Lan and the uber-successful.
They are known for their incredible successes and have made a name for themselves. Their stories inspire and create generations of hungry individuals trying to take the road less travelled. For example, Gary Vaynerchuck is idolised as the pioneer of the Hustle Culture; he even claims to work up to 94 hours a week. (Hustle Culture is another thing I’ll discuss on a later date!)
“Why do these stories matter though?” you may ask.
The underlying issue with these stories is that there is inherently Survivorship Bias clinging onto them. I’m in no way downplaying the levels of achievement of the individuals and these corporations and their level of commitment to their craft to get where they are.
Think about the substantial attempts that humans have made to become celebrities, have a startup or just be a big name in this world. Statistically, 1 in 10 new startups fail. Walk into Silicon Valley and for every 10 entrepreneurs you see, only one will come out on top.
Yes, everyone wants to succeed. No one wants to be left in the dust. This is when Survivorship Bias kicks in. Your perception skews to the success stories to justify your choices, whether they blind you or guide you on your journey.
Why is Survivorship Bias Problematic?
You’re probably thinking of the different shapes and forms you’ve been presented with Survivorship Bias. But what’s the worst that can happen if you have some Survivorship Bias in your life? Famous last words, am I right?
Survivorship Bias causes all of us to have oversight over a situation. It can even make us take life decisions, like money expenditure or diving into a startup, based on stories in the media with a strong Survivorship Bias. That doesn’t sound great does it?
Privilege
I feel that privilege is something that needs to be mentioned in this conversation. Privilege plays such a massive role in Survivorship Bias. Elon Musk would be a prime example of this, despite him being the very embodiment of the hustle culture.
Elon has been incredibly lucky in some aspects of his life. His citizenship being one of them. Ever heard of Elon enlisting in the mandatory South African army? Right, you haven’t. That’s because he was able to obtain Canadian citizenship before he turned 18 and enlisting. That’s one way privilege has helped him.
Despite the public knowledge of Elon’s insane work ethic and his intelligence, privilege still played a part in his successes. Not taking anything away from his career, Elon has been dubbed the Most Innovative Leader of 2019 and ranks in the top 25 of The World’s Most Powerful People.
What Do You Do Now?
You know what Survivorship Bias is. You know of the dangers of it too. But what can you realistically do?
Stop taking things at face value first and foremost! I’m a sucker for good success stories myself, I’m personally a massive fan of Jim Kwik, a brain coach who overcame head and brain injuries sustained as a child. The stories are meant to inspire and drive you to take action.
Next time you read an amazing story of a triumph, keep in mind the potential many others that tried but did not succeed in similar fashion.
Thank You For Your Time!
I appreciate you for taking the time from your busy life to read this short article! Feel free to leave some feedback and please follow for more.
